The current geopolitical landscape can be described as a ‘new normal’ under Donald Trump, leaving Australia in a precarious position. It’s time to face the truth: we can no longer ignore the implications of this shift.
Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron made headlines at the World Economic Forum in Davos by echoing sentiments from the film Love Actually, where the character played by Hugh Grant confronts a US president. Macron aimed his remarks squarely at Trump, who had shared a conciliatory text from Macron that indicated the French leader was attempting to engage Trump in dialogue to stabilize a rapidly deteriorating global order.
In the movie, Grant’s character makes a poignant statement: "A friend who bullies us is no longer a friend, and since bullies only respond to strength, from now onward, I will be prepared to be much stronger." This quote resonates deeply today, as we navigate an era where reality often surpasses fiction, making it challenging to discern what is true.
The catalyst for Macron's comments was a discussion surrounding Greenland, which has become emblematic of Trump's provocative tactics meant to assert dominance. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Denmark and other European nations over their resistance to American control of Greenland served its purpose: it jolted Europe into action, prompting discussions of retaliatory measures, including tariff increases and potential restrictions on US goods and services. In response to this diplomatic standoff, military resources were even directed towards Greenland.
However, Trump ultimately claimed to have reached a vague agreement with NATO and retracted the tariffs, stating, "We probably won’t get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force, where we would be, frankly, unstoppable. But I won’t do that." This nonchalant dismissal raises an unsettling question: had he chosen to follow through on his aggressive rhetoric regarding Greenland, who could have intervened to stop him?
The stark reality we must confront is that the global order relies heavily on trust, and under Trump's leadership, the United States has become an unreliable partner. This shift in trust represents a fundamental crisis for international relations. As Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, pointed out in a significant speech at Davos, the previous global order is unlikely to return. His remarks have sparked considerable discussion, primarily because they highlight an unvarnished truth many prefer to overlook.
For Australia, the ramifications of Trump's actions in the Northern Hemisphere are particularly critical. The Atlantic alliance, which has provided a semblance of stability in Western Europe for nearly eight decades—albeit with its flaws—appears to be disintegrating. Believing that this decline does not profoundly affect Australia is a misguided notion.
Events in regions like Ukraine and Gaza over recent years have contributed to the unraveling of the fragile rules-based international order established after World War II. Various global leaders, including Putin and Netanyahu, along with the Trump administration’s actions in Venezuela, have blatantly disregarded the established norms of warfare and humanitarian principles, leading to increasingly blurred boundaries.
Trump has consistently tested these boundaries since entering the presidential race in 2015, reshaping the information landscape and gradually normalizing actions that were previously deemed unacceptable. This evolution signifies the emergence of a new normal that leaves Australia feeling isolated.
With our closest ally exhibiting aggressive behavior toward other allies and showing a blatant disregard for established protocols, the intertwining of our defense, security, information, technology, and economic systems complicates any effort to disentangle them. Such a separation seems almost unfeasible.
What does our alliance with the United States mean moving forward? What is the actual value of the Aukus pact, especially when it appears to place Australia at greater risk while funneling billions into Trump’s administration, even as he carelessly dismisses Article 5 of the NATO treaty?
Speculations have emerged regarding Canada’s hypothetical modeling of a US invasion, which may sound outlandish, but as Carney emphasized, nations like Canada are among the first to recognize that long-standing alliances can no longer be taken for granted. He poignantly stated, "Middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu."
Whether one agrees with Carney or not, he is taking tangible steps by negotiating a trade deal with China, emphasizing the pragmatic approach: "We take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be." This perspective highlights an essential truth: hope alone cannot serve as a strategy.
Steve Bannon, a close ally of Trump, recently commented on Australia’s handling of COVID-19, suggesting that it altered our image among Trump supporters. He remarked, "People in your country should understand you went from beloved to kind of shot," demonstrating a stunning lack of self-awareness about how perceptions can shift.
This situation is not one-sided, and Australia cannot rely solely on historical friendships in the current political climate.
Zoe Daniel, a seasoned foreign correspondent with the ABC and former independent member for Goldstein, serves as chair of Mental Health Victoria.
